Some facts first:
- Gartner vs. Microsoft, Episode I: the premices
On May 1st 2006, technology analysis firm Gartner Group published a report entitled “Windows Vista Unlikely to Ship Before 2Q07“. The report started with the following stance: “Microsoft’s track record is clear; it consistently misses target dates for major operating system releases. We don’t expect broad availability of Windows Vista until at least 2Q07, which is nine to 12 months after Beta 2.” Gartner fully participated into MSFT’s financial downgrading at that time (following the trend, MS Corp had just plummeted 11% in one day, down to US$23,8, after releasing disappointing Q3 figures). A long time Microsoft stockholder, I remember getting nervous against Gartner’s analysts: how the heck these guys could, sitting in front of their computers, declare things such as someone’s track record is clear?? Can’t people or organizations change?
Winner: Gartner
- Gartner vs. Microsoft, Episode II: The Empire Strikes Back
Gartner had forecasted the release of Vista as late as 2Q07, or April 1st 2007 min. That is 2 months late at least compared to the initial calendar, January 30th 2007; people at Gartner should catch up in maths: they say that’s one month in advance only: “For all the press on the topic, it appears that Microsoft will beat our prediction by a month (if they meet their 30 Jan. target). We will congratulate Microsoft as they hit their dates.” (see this post on Gartner’s blog about Vista).
Bottom line: it appears today that MS Vista is to be released on time.
Gartner was wrong: Microsoft’s track record wasn’t so clear. Or actually, I believe it’s clear MS is getting better: Windows 3.0 didn’t quite deserve the OS title; Windows 3.1 wasn’t ridiculous but a few years late compared to Mac OS; Windows 95 was intrinsically late & pretty dirty in terms of memory management and security; Windows 98 was much better in many respects; Windows Millenium was an unstable version of Windows 98; Windows NT eventually provided honest security features and some sort of stability; Windows XP is a very good product; and I still don’t know what to think of Vista, but my first impression (tested Beta) is extremely positive. It’s pretty clear the number of innovations (thanks Kari) improvements (3000!!) integrated is underrated (see Scobleizer) by most observers. So, to me, MS’s track record is crystal clear: the company has been getting better and better over time.
Winner: Microsoft
- Gartner vs. Microsoft, Episode III: The Phantom Menace
Gartner is definitely not a fair player. Taking advantage of its “CIO advisor” sort of situation, the firm now advocates that “companies shouldn’t rush to upgrade to Microsoft Windows Vista” (see here). Gartner’s call to CIOs is to wait until 2008, for the first service packs to be available. I don’t know what’s going on between Gartner and Microsoft, but the friendship thermometer looks rather low. After betting MS would be late, Gartner now pushes for companies to postpone updates.
Winner: Gartner
- Gartner vs. Microsoft, Episode IV: The Return of Gartner
Probably not satisfied yet, Gartner came up yesterday with one big new argument against Microsoft. Now that Microsoft is to release Vista on time, Gartner criticizes the calendar, saying launching in end of January will damage the entire PC market and Christmas traditionally booming sales. MS had anticipated such a move, and has negotiated preferential updating (through downloads) conditions with most OEM vendors. Still, potential reputation damage is high for MSFT. We’re talking here of the economic impact of being on time…Furthermore, Gartner anticipates a very low penetration rate for Vista (10% of computers equipped with Vista in the end of year 2007 only). So how come the launch of Vista may damage Christmas PC sales? It’s all illogical.
To state things clearly: had Microsoft been late, Gartner would’ve said “I told you”. Now that Microsoft is to launch on time, Gartner says “The timing’s wrong”. To repeat myself, there’s something opaque and unclear going on between Gartner and Microsoft. Has an employee from Microsoft had an affair with the girlfriend of a Gartner analyst? Has someone at Gartner had his/her grandmother taken a short position (equivalent to a put option) on MSFT? I don’t know. But I’ll figure it out.
Winner: Gartner (for the reputation damage to MS)
Questions/Conclusion: in your opinion, what’s wrong between Gartner and Microsoft? What next? What would’ve been the best calendar for the launch of Vista? (according to Gartner I guess, Never).