The mobile web is knocking on our doors
For quite some years we already see the mobile web being promoted by carriers without a real breakthrough. The web on a mobile device so far meant an expensive service, in many cases a misfit of the content to be displayed on tiny screens and the lack of convincing (business) ideas for the web on the go.
This year things seem to change in many ways:
- The market for portable navigation systems (especially in Germany) has grown since 3 years from the nearly non-existence to an estimated 1 billion euro business in 2007. This tremendous growth made companies like Nokia wake up and enter the market with their mobile phones (equipped with GPS). So from now on we will see an interesting contest between those stand alone navigation devices and mobile phones with GPS inbuilt. Older cellphones get help from the french startup BlueSky Positioning: They integrate GPS on the (normal) SIM card! So in my opinion it’s not difficult to forecast the market development in this field: Cellphones will gain the battle and navigation will be the breakthrough feature for the mobile web.
- The Web 2.0 and its idea of social communities offers more and more applications for meeting oder making friends on the go. Most of them might fail sooner or later. But they will help a lot to establish the idea of web services especially designed for mobile devices. The Open Gardens Blog has some examples. In addition to that Geo Tagging is a growing business and one of its most prominent companies, Plazes, is located in Berlin. Mobile Tagging so far is very popular in Japan but still more or less unkown in Europe. Meanwhile Google is on the rush for Mobile Search. So in the past there was only browsing the “normal web”. Now we see more and more applications specially designed for the “mobile web” adressing needs for people on the way. Without doubt this will change people’s attitudes and habits.
- In the longer run features like Mobile Gaming and Mobile Payment may also contribute significantly. So far only Mobile Gaming really is a (fast growing) market while solutions for Mobile Payment from PayPal or Google still wait for broader acceptance (Did you notice that Google seems to take part in nearly any of those new fields?).
- Finally this article would not be complete without mentioning this week’s market launch of the iPhone. I am sure that the iPhone will alter the market of mobile phones a lot and bring an important shift from regarding mobile phones no longer as simple telephone devices (with some additional functions) but as multimedia machines that also can make telephone calls. Apple’s advertising strategy clearly shows how they want the iPhone to be used (although there will be no GPS on board).
But still we do have one major problem: Surfing the internet on a mobile device is (very) expensive compared to the fees for home computing. But here again the remedies are not far off: Apple’s famous iPhone counts on Wi-Fi and quite a few startup companies work on algorithms, that will be able to compress data into packages of bearable size. In Germany the market leading carriers, Vodafone and T-Mobile, started this month offering affordable flat-rate fees.
So in a few years time we might look back and declare 2007 as the real beginning of the mobile web and many mobile business models. But in the same time we also might (nervously) look forward to the start of the 4G mobile networks, that will bring us transmission capacities of 100 MB per second (or even more). And once again things will change dramatically. But that’s another story…
“But still we do have one major problem: Surfing the internet on a mobile device is (very) expensive compared to the fees for home computing.”
it s not sure huge bandwith will be necessary for mobile devices.
Ergonomy and visibility are de facto poor on mobile devices. Surfing is then difficult.
Connectivity to peers around simple & relevant information extraction from NET may be the resulting solution.
Those constraints push the emerging NFC solutions (barcode RFID..)
Qode, Scanbuy ..
minimum customer activity on the mobile (barcode reader) and relevant information extraction from the net - Price, advice, all kind of information.
In parralel other initiatives try to improve mobile visibility: Microsoft deep fish (zoom in) but still you re lacking some space.
Comment by nicolas belhassen — June 29, 2007 @ 11:49 am
Well, the question about bandwith really is interesting as Apple for example did not adopt for 3G with the iPhone.
My Blackberry Pearl is also limited to EDGE but the real problem is the poor visibility on the small screen (I admit)…
Comment by matthiastech — June 29, 2007 @ 2:08 pm
I don’t know. I’m waiting for both WiMax or something similar to bring some form of “net neutrality” to the medium. I think both Google and maybe Skype are currently arguing for the frequencies to be opened up for more web-based solutions to compete. I really hope that they succeed.
In addition because I (clearly) like to write a lot, I really prefer the ultra-mobile laptop-format to the not-so-mobile mobile format. I like a regular keyboard, and am not a fan of iPhone’s touch-screen-solution. I think the Palm Foleo is a step in the right direction.
Comment by Vincent van Wylick — June 30, 2007 @ 12:35 pm
i have a qtek9000 with 3G sim.
with such screen surfing is when needed and focused - not for fun.
-> i dont feel need for more bandwith.
Comment by belhassen — June 30, 2007 @ 6:38 pm
Basically, the mobile market is pretty complicated and it is extremely diffcult for a small mobile company to offer new services and innovate.
I guess that’s why we haven’t seen Mobile as a Internet terminal taking off as we thought it would.
I can only recommend you to read fred post on this : http://fredbrunel.com/journal/2006/09/5-reasons-why-mobile-business-sucks/
Comment by ceciiil — August 23, 2007 @ 1:47 pm
But don’t you think this has a possibility to change if the frequencies were to open up, like is happening in the US (hopefully)? The reason why change is so frustrating is because the mobile operator market is an oligopoly, dominated by a small number of very large and powerful players.
If, like on the internet, these players were to be pushed back towards a simple infrastructure-role, I think there are a lot-a lot of options for mobile development. Basically this whole world is waiting for good solutions to take the web with them and integrate it into their daily lives.
That said, I do share your scepticism about whether this will in any way be easy. I do think that the EU is showing an active interest in curtailing the power of these types of companies, so in that regard I am hopeful.
Comment by Vincent van Wylick — August 23, 2007 @ 3:16 pm
Thanks a lot for the link to Fred Brunel’s article. Anyway I am still convinced that content (and not market infrastructure) will bring the breakthrough.
And: Apple is a hope, too (Revenue sharing with carriers!)
Comment by Matthias Schwenk — August 23, 2007 @ 4:27 pm
Wow, this guy Fred you Ceciil point out definitely has a point in his insightful post. Impressive.
Comment by Jeremy Fain — August 23, 2007 @ 4:51 pm
I used to work with Fred. He really is a fantastic IT professional. He has the vision, the business approach and the passion.
Actually he is noumero uno on my blogroll underground (http://ceciiil.wordpress.com/2007/08/22/blogroll-underground/).
Comment by ceciiil — August 23, 2007 @ 7:11 pm
There is a great new site that started up 2 weeks ago called
mobile.barcle.com Easy, smart, and lightweight. Barcle has compiled 15 Million SKUs from over 20 000 brands at almost 1 000 online stores. Nothing complicated, just type in the SKU
while instore shopping and Barcle will show you the lowest online prices available, as well as a product photo and description.
That way you can instore shop confident about the prices you see
and not have to visit 5 different outlets to compare. If the merchant will not match the lowest price, go elsewhere or buy it directly from Barcle. If you scan alot, Socketmobile sells SDIO/mini SDIO readers. Barcle does not ask you for your name or ask you to join anything. Check it out.
Comment by bnerunner — December 9, 2007 @ 1:56 pm