you make good arguments, but I don’t buy the idea that iPhone is revolutionary. I’m also doubtful about iPhone’s development into a tablet and besides, N95 has TV-out and can be used with external keybarods. (I don’t actually like the N95, but it’s the only phone I know that is in the same market segment as iPhone)

What I’ve understood, the version of Safari on iPhone is far from full-blown and on par with Opera Mini and N95’s browser.

As I said, devices like iPhone show us what the future might look like, but we’re not there yet and I think that, Marc and Matthias, you might overestimate Apple’s impact on mobile phone industry. Moving 500,000 iPhones in a weekend is really an amazing job. I’d love to know how that compares to other hype phones on the market.

I still think the impact on mobile industry is small. My main arguments for this is that it is a closed environment and this is Apple’s first mobile phone – Mac wasn’t Apple’s first computer. This will all probably change in the future, but I’m talking about the iPhone that is now available. Without any clues about Apple’s mobile strategy, the future is anyone’s guess.

Indeed Apple still is a very small player sitting in a niche and we don’t really know anything about the strategy of Steve Jobs.

But maybe he saw the market shift from personal computers to mobile devices (the web going mobile). In the market for mobile computing Apple had no device – so the idea for the iPhone might have come up.

And once the idea of the iPhone was born, it was quite clear, that the new device would need outstanding qualities in order to keep the niche profitable!

So Steve Jobs might unvoluntarily change the world: Maybe he only wanted a good mobile device for his niche strategy – but the iPhone now obviously seems to have the power to dictate market standards (as far as mobile devices are concerned)…

Replace “phone” by “computer” or better, “PC”, “talking to it” by “typing on it”, and “your pocket waiting for a call” by “”before your eyes on your desk waiting for answer” : you get the typical reaction of most of the so-called experts/observers/analysts when the first Mac came out back in 1984. It didn’t change the Computer Industry, huh ?…

2. In Europe per se, three major mobile operators : Vodafone, T-Mobile, Orange. All of them do cover the whole region and beyond (e.g. North Africa, Middle East). Partner with at least two of them, and you’re all set.

3. Again, the iPhone is not just another (smart)phone. It is a computer. Add some hardware connectivity, e.g. USB and external display, and you get a perfect tablet computer. Foreseeable future : a complete family of iPhone products, like the actual iPod one.

Last, on the pricing issue : just go to the online AppleStore and compare the prices of the iPods and Macs on both the USA site and the France site. Save a few bucks, pricing is the same. Why the heck would you want the iPhone to follow a different scheme ? In the iPhone ecosystem, Apple rules, not the Telco.

post-scriptum #1 : the iPhone even changes the way the user activates its cell phone.

post-scriptum #2 : comparing a downsized web browser (Opera Mini) to a full-blown one (Safari, running on the iPhone) is a mistake.

post-scriptum #3 : mentioning a * iPhone Shuffle * is a total misunderstanding of what Product Marketing is all about.

I guess what Apple needs to prove about iPhone is that on average, an iPhone owner is more profitable to an operator (ie. uses more SMS and data services). The exclusivity to an operator probably isn’t enough. For the carrier, iPhone must mean higher profits and margins for the 12-24 month subscription period.

The European price range for iPhone is not from my sleeve, but from amazon.de (they have since pulled the prices from their pages).

Seriously, what’s up with these extremities? Suddenly I’m anti-Apple? I’m really worried about this trend where you’re either with “us”, or you’re with “them”. Should I be all “I support the tro.. Apple, but not the war in Ir… iPhone”? Another difference between USA and Europe is that most European countries do not have a two-party system so there’s a wider set of opinions than pro- and anti-. OK, I knew I was going to get some backslash. Just take a look at what Jeff Atwood at Coding Horror got when he said Mac’s program installation method is inferior to Windows’ setup.exes, a point that I totally disagree with. At least he deserved to get his ass handed back to him.

Steve, I think pretty much everyone agrees that iPhone’s UI is the best designed in any handset on market. Is that enough? I can understand the importance of UI, when you use a device, but consider the main use cases of a phone. Most of the time, you’re either talking to it or it’s in your pocket waiting for a call. This is how phones are used now. Phones like iPhone and N95 show us the future when the capabilites of phones have increased and the prices of data services come down and there are more and more services for mobile users on the net.

Matthias, your point about >12 month timescale is good. I’ve not seen articles about what’s Apple’s iPhone strategy. I guess no-one really knows. My guess is that iPhone will stay US-centric and focus on high-end smartphone market (so don’t expect iPhone Shuffle). I expect iPhone product like to act more like Apple’s laptop product line. Too many people seem to fixate on iPod-likeness of the phone.

Steve, if you’re talking about predicting text input like T9 (t9.com) and even if you’re not, I believe this is technology Apple doesn’t (and probably patent-wise can’t) develop in-house, but gets elsewhere. The mobile phone market is a patent minefield. This is one of the reasons good ideas and applications rarely spread there. This is bad for customers especially because the lifespan of a device is couple of years, yet many of its innovations are protected for 20 years.

Nevertheless, one should admit that besides the 3G, most differences between the iPhone and its competitors do not seem to overweight the perceived benefits of the “multitouch (& multipoint)” .

Of course, these might be completely overrated by customers, but then it is SO HYPE

I am more dubious about the automatic text correction system, which is almost compulsory because of the virtual keyboard. Will Apple be able to develop the same thing for all the European languages, including Finnish ?

I’ve known Kari for quite some time, and I can tell both of you, Matthias & Etienne, that Kari is a huge fan of Apple.

And even addicts have opinions. There’s nothing passionate in this article.

1. However the market entry policy of Apple in Europe will be: In the longer run iPhones will be available everywhere and with any carrier. So why bother about the success in the first 12 months?

2. 3G really is a problem in Europe. But: In Germany for example both T-Mobile and Vodafone recently have also built up EDGE-networks so there will be quite a good infrastructure for the iPhone (and for blackberries as well!)

3. The devices: Of course there are many good smartphones available in Europe, some with even better features than the iPhone. But what about the handling? The iPhone offers an outstanding simple and intuitive handling via its touchscreen. So let’s wait and see how consumers will decide!

My opinion: The race is open, but Apple might see a similar success as with its iPod (in Europa as in America). And as the iPod is not a single device but a product family so will be the iPhone (in 2 to 3 years time).

Exaggerating the prices, lowering the capabilities, lowering the successes…

IT clearly is all about passion !