Peter Pesti, a student at Georgia Tech University wrote this roadmap to the 21st century. His document is really worth taking a closer look as he brought together predictions from many different (scientific) ressources, covering mostly the fields of technology, economics and climate conditions. The video on YouTube is a shorter version of his long list.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1KEFgD6Dtg]

But do we have to believe what he is telling us? Especially about the audacious ideas for live at the end of 21st century?

1. The personal view: Having a personal view about the future is quite a difficult thing. We know things will change in the long run and scientific progress tends to emerge and make live easier. In addition to that many of us share the feeling, that scientific progress modifies our lives faster and with more intensity than in former times (centuries). This is the reason why I think we all should reflect about future from time to time. Ideas or roadmaps like the one from Peter Pesti can be a great help to see what might happen and to build up one’s own opinion.
2. The business view: Business is about markets and competition – and quite often very shortsighted (or should I say shortminded?). So in this field it might be good to reflect about a companies visions and long term strategies (if there are any!). My experience is, that many companies tend to predict future as a simple prolongation of trends that have occoured long ago. But mostly future is different from what companies thought it would be. That’s the reason, why there is so much failure and misunderstanding about market shifts and technological ruptures. So for business people reflecting (different) scenarios about future from time to time would be a good exercise.
3. The technological view: The roadmap makes quite clear that technology becomes more and more imporant. And Peter Pesti is not the only one to think so: Former IBM strategist and manager Irving Wladawsky-Berger in a recent blog post stressed the fact, that technical talent is more important than ever before, as it is increasingly permeating all aspects of business, society and our personal lives. So thinking about future for technologists should be “normal homework”.

One important remark has to be made about Peter Pesti’s roadmap: Two of his assumptions are of central relevance to the final outcome and both can be heavily discussed. The first is the occurrence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) sooner or later in 21st century and the second is this sort of possible transition of human intelligence and consciousness into a computational context (robotic, machinery, virtual life). If both will show up, 21st century will really be the begin of a totally new era. If not, well then changes won’t be that dramatic and life may continue to be relatively “human”.

This very special focus on AI as an important factor of technological development appears to me to be a specific hope for eternal life placed in a non-religious but scientific context. So far there is no proof, that AI will soon occour. The dreams and serious reflections about it are some 50 years old. Surprisingly there is no general debate about it in modern society.

So Peter Pesti’s roadmap to the 21st century is a very good starting point for personal thinking as well as for a more openminded business perspective about future, technology and modern society.

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