Inflection points – The greatest fear of an academic, & I guess authors & startups too
I’ve been studying up on different technology-sectors these last few weeks, also picking up on a book that *is supposed to* give an accurate image of the current state of mobile commerce (it was published in 2008). Turns out that one chapter/article I read, which listed all the current technologies of relevance in that sector (GSM, Edge, “3G,” etc., as well as SMS, SAT, WAP, etc.) only lists sources up to 2002. And the same applies to several value chains in mobile commerce, most of which were up to the early 2000s also.
Back when I was an academic, i.e. writing a thesis, the underlying fear was always that my information was outdated. Indeed, just at the time that I finished, a new report came out that I could’ve have integrated into my findings to give a more current picture. You also see this happening with books on gadgets, e.g. the Jailbroken iPhone, which is clearly no longer applicable now (not to mention that it was clear that that wasn’t going to be a long-term thing).
In terms of markets, people like Andy Grove taught me to always watch out for (aka be paranoid about) “strategic inflection points,” which can change things, rather radically. 6 years ago, when people were researching mobile tech, the iPhone wasn’t even on the agenda, and 4G was a pipe-dream (note: a good short article on that in the Economist). Now, the rules of the game may change much sooner than people think, and while I think that tech like SMS will remain the lowest-common denominator for some time, meaning that it allows for developing strategies that are span contexts and geographies, the mobile internet may displace part of that system pretty soon.
I imagine it’s quite similar with entrepreneurs starting on a trajectory of developing an idea, committing resources to it, and suddenly finding out that the rules of the game are changing. Sometimes it’s too late; you’re ready to launch and/or can’t afford another development cycle. And at other times, it may be smart to do the extra work after all, so that you are creating something that is actually relevant for today’s world.
What matters most for an academic is to have a solid theory that can be applied to any setting; what matters most for an entrepreneur is the same—to have a solid vision—as well as being prepared for strategic inflection points and able to respond to them quickly.
A short reflective piece on my sick-day.
Vincent
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Business Process Management, Business intelligence, Business strategy, Consumer electronics, Economics, Entrepreneurship, Future, Technology, Telecommunications, innovation
Hey Vince, take care and recover quickly.
Funnily enough I was just discussing a similar topic with a colleague over lunch time.
In the technology business both business and technology are evolving at the speed of light.
I had this sad experience on the mobile market whereby we started a allegedly 1 year program (it eventually and obviously took twice as much) to find out when we released that it already was obsolete.
The problem in that industry (as opposed to brick & mortar) is that inflection points are pretty unpredictable. Internet bubble 1.0 was in 00 but Social Networks success stories only appear about 5 years later.
Excellent post – again.
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