If I ever succumb to the temptation to blog like I did last night, feel free to shoot me. Now, back to our regular programming…

Last week, I wrote about having heroes in your craft and how I found it noteworthy that some examples are more effective than others in everyone’s path to self-improvement. I attributed it to the vague concept of compatible brain-patterns, but really I think it’s a much more simple idea. The reason that my writing heroes have an influence on my craft is because I practice it. In other words, there is a right mix of idea and execution (I would call it semi-right as there’s much room for improvement).

There are plenty of blog posts about this. Most well-known to me is Derek Sivers’ blog post about the “execution multiplier” that makes ideas more or less valuable:

AWFUL IDEA = -1
WEAK IDEA = 1
SO-SO IDEA = 5
GOOD IDEA = 10
GREAT IDEA = 15
BRILLIANT IDEA = 20

NO EXECUTION = $1
WEAK EXECUTION = $1000
SO-SO- EXECUTION = $10,000
GOOD EXECUTION = $100,000
GREAT EXECUTION = $1,000,000
BRILLIANT EXECUTION = $10,000,000

To make a business, you need to multiply the two.

More recently, Sarah Lacy wrote a post on Techcrunch, entitled “Is Execution More Important than Vision?,” where she differentiates between entrepreneurs that are visionary vs. those that are good at execution. In other words, she categorises people as either fitting in the one or the other.

What is clear from all of these is that ideas unapplied are essentially worthless. Which to me means three things:

1. That if you have ideas in an area that is difficult for you to execute on, you’re probably better off focussing on areas where you can execute them.
2. Or, that it is equally important to find the right resources (skills & knowledge, network & team, money & customers) for your idea as it is to have the idea.
3. That you ultimately need to move towards a system of rapid iteration or rapid prototyping, because, as we all know, ideas are ideas, and the reality will more often than not change your original product idea. The quicker you can test them out and improve them, the better your chances of making a commercial success.

It’s a bit of a leap from my post about writing heroes to executing entrepreneurial ideas, I know, but I think it makes sense.

Vincent

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Hi, my name is Vincent, a now-familiar face in Tech IT Easy’s blogging family, and today I’d like to write about my thoughts about startups’ reasons to fail (and as a consequence: reasons to succeed). This is my 3rd non-tech topic in a row, and if you hadn’t guessed it, I have little inspiration to write about tech these days.

So, “why do startups fail?” seems to be a relevant question these days and I guess to everyone running or thinking about running or working in a startup. Depending on who you talk to, no actually pretty much everyone, over 90% of startups fail within 2 years of their launch. The stats vary according to whom the startup works with, it is much lower with venture-funded companies, as well as within certain incubators.

The Credit Crunch

One of the most popular reasons I heard while writing my thesis (which involved me interviewing over 200 tech-startups), is of course lack of money. That seems really relevant today, and is certainly a factor.

To give a personal example of how the credit crunch is affecting our lives negatively, back when I started a bachelor in Manchester, UK, about 10 years ago, I was able to get a student-loan quite easily at a British bank. You walk in with your details, get a 1000 pounds overdraft and a credit-card to boot. This was still the case until a few months ago. My brother, who just left for Lancaster, UK, was counting on a similar deal. But banks had withdrawn that service to non-UK citizen, rather abruptly, forcing my brother to find alternative solutions. Banks don’t care about who needs or deserves a loan, when they cut it off, we’re all screwed.

Fred Wilson pointed out that seed-funding will likely suffer most, and true, banks are, both directly and indirectly, an incredibly important source in that arena, as well as at later stages. The graph below showed my own results, for two measures carried out during 2005 and 2006 on the investment climate for high-tech startups in the Netherlands (a Dutch version of that report can be downloaded here).

What this graph also shows is that even pre-credit crunch, most startups didn’t use or weren’t able to use much beyond their own savings (the turquoise part) at the seed and sometimes the later stage (of course that still includes credit cards and similar bank-related funding sources). No way that this is something that should be generalised across all countries of course, I imagine that the distribution of investors will vary quite substantially from country to country.

Forget funding

I happen to think that funding is not the factor to focus on when talking about startup failure. In a perfect financial market, which, many financial people try to convince me, exists, you get funding if other conditions are in place. Receiving an investment is a validation of your idea, and if you can’t get investors to talk to you it’s either because:

1. Your idea is bad.
2. Your presentation is bad.
3. There are too many similar startups applying for funding.

The key here is then for 1. to improve your idea, for 2. to improve your presentation, and for 3. to stop being a sheep and reinventing the mousetrap. While this makes me sound like an asshole, the point is that none of these reasons have to do with funding, they have to do with the quality of your venture.

Non-financial reasons for failing

A startup is a machine that needs to be built, needs to operated and maintained, and needs to produce sufficient output/income to cover the costs that building, operating, and maintaining require.

Therefore, startup-failure is related to:

• Too expensive a building-process (both in money, people, and time), which comes out of bad planning and insufficient skillsets to get results.
• Improper operation and maintenance, which is really to do with bad HR-practices.
• Insufficient output/income, which can be related to the quantity produced (bad planning, skills), bad pricing, and of course a bad market.

The “bad market” factor is an interesting one, because it seems very related to the credit crunch problem. My brother, who is forced to look elsewhere for funding, will be less likely to buy a laptop from the start now. Everything ties back into funding somehow.

Bad market or bad business-model?

The top business models, in my mind, are built to withstand recession. Some could argue that they are built during a recession. An example of this is discounters like Aldi, which was built in a poor Germany, many years ago, and has caused a revolution in European retailing. Im not 100% sure, but I think that the strength of European discounters here has even prevented monsters like Wal Mart from taking over the place.

Other streams of thought about this take you into “blue ocean” or “long tail” territory, both somewhat hip ways of saying that you should think outside the box.

A bad market can be a lack of desire on consumers part to pay for your product. And it can be that the market is simply to small, suggesting that it may be a good idea to think globally from the start. Certainly, investors like the idea of entrepreneurs thinking (realistically) big. Also when you see some of the industry-growth-stats in emerging economies, it makes sense to target those markets, instead of the many 0-2% growth economies in the Western world.

I guess what I’m saying is that a bad market is just an excuse for failure. If your business is advertising dependent, you should be aware that most advertisers cut their spending during recessions, a recession that has been predicted for years now. The same applies to certain luxury goods, etc. So, perhaps the market isn’t bad, perhaps the business-model is bad too.

In summary…

Yes, the credit crunch is scary, as are all recessions. Yes, we would all like our ideas to simply be output – input = profit. But the core of entrepreneurship is to think in opportunities, to not get stuck in ideas, and be market-focussed. It is about breaking rules and making new ones. And, while it is a harsh world where failure is accompanied by a high price, at the core of entrepreneurship is also optimism—the belief that everything can be solved with the right perspective.

So why do startups fail? By setting themselves up to fail.

Vincent out

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